Tesla 2Q numbers - strong growth but misses estimates

Tesla reported numbers for their Second Quarter 2016 last week, as we were voting and worried with the weighty matters of democracy. Tesla are equally worried with the weighty matters of sustainable energy and climate change. One of the best and most sensible things Elon Musk said was that the best and most reliable energy sources known to mankind was the sun, yet we hardly enhance the full potential.

As you would know, Tesla is currently in the process of acquiring SolarCity, another Musk associated company, for 0.11 Tesla shares per SolarCity share. Which roughly values, or valued SolarCity, at 2.6 billion Dollars when the final deal amount was announced. The expected ownership of the "new" Tesla will be approximately 6.5 percent of the SolarCity shareholders (which include Elon Musk) and 93.5 percent the balance of the Tesla shareholders. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter this year.

As Musk points out, it would create the world's only integrated sustainable energy business. Energy generation, storage and then conversion to mobility (panels to batteries, batteries to motor vehicles) would see an all in one solution. The installation cost per Watt produced continues to fall, the sad truth is that Musk is a dreamer (like Bezos), profits come later. He believes that they will come. Now, when you run a public company and you are responsible for others peoples money, you will draw major criticism from all quarters. Including the naysayers, it can't be done they will say.

He (Musk) has done a lot already. He has changed the mindset of humanity and their adoption of electric vehicles (EV's, the only acceptable acronym, OK?), yet one feels that we haven't quite scratched the surface yet. Heck, Tesla only delivered 14,402 vehicles last quarter. Less than the 17 thousand they targeted. If you needed a reminder, the global sales number last year was (according to The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers annual sales table - French acronym OICA) 89,677,983 in 2015. That is either a lot, or not that many, depending on the way you look at it. I plan to have as few motor vehicles as possible in my life, they are a tool, not a necessity, say, like a shower or bed.

Even if Musk reaches what looks unobtainable, 90 thousand this year, Tesla would still only be 0.1 percent of global production. It is not surprising that one doesn't see these vehicles on the road, you have to visit high net worth global areas. It is not as if the company sits still, hell no, they are busy adding a new retail location every four days in the next two quarters. The plan is to generate huge interest and the ability to meet it will be ramped up over the coming years.

In the mass car department, Musk updated the audience in the shareholder letter -

"We have completed the design phase of Model 3 and released Model 3 for tooling, production planning and validation. The Model 3 capacity expansion will reflect our initial efforts to apply our "machine that makes the machine" philosophy to vehicle manufacturing, and demonstrates our intense focus on volumetric and capital efficiency. Some Model 3 production equipment is already on line, including initial capacity in our stamping and paint centers. Later this year, we plan to begin construction of new Model 3 body and general assembly centers."

If you are owning this company, you are essentially owning an option on the future, a changing consumer pattern and adoption of EV's (all of which look intact) and a huge bet on the masterplan. The GigaFactory is a sight to behold. Musk showed an aerial view of the progress, the inside (you have seen the pictures) is more impressive:



The outlook segment is pretty hard running, Musk wants to produce 2200 cars a day for the third quarter and 2400 a day for the fourth quarter, in order to reach that 50 thousand run rate for the second half. The company is still planning on investing 2.25 billion Dollars in capex for the full year, that new production line and solar factory battery producer don't look cheap. Whilst revenues grow like gangbusters, so do costs. Musk and Tesla have grand plans, humanity needs people like this.

With a market capitalisation of 33 billion Dollars, the company is certainly expected by the investment community to do amazing things. They, not unlike another technology company that sells hundreds of millions of iPhones, make beautiful products. Which are easy to use and simple looking and quite simply have awesome features. Know that the investment is not for everyone, you need a high tolerance for risk. Musk himself stuck his own money at the beginning as he wasn't sure it was going to work. The biggest ever weekend of initial sales of a consumer product (the Model 3 launch) in history tells you the consumer is chomping at the proverbial bit. Accumulate as a high beta stock at the fringes of your portfolio, if your risk tolerance is up for it.