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Money honey

31 July , 09:02 am

Market scorecard

US markets were cruising higher until the Fed's interest rate decision yesterday. As expected, they did nothing, but in his press conference Jerome Powell seemed a little hawkish, emphasising a wait-and-see approach. One can understand his position - with a strong labour market, solid GDP growth and rising US import taxes, there is no rush to cut rates.

In company news, home fitness company Peloton star jumped 18.8% due to an analyst upgrade. Snack maker Mondelez got chomped by 6.6% after posting slower organic growth and slimmer margins last quarter. Finally, online trading platform Robinhood continued its record run, gaining another 2.7% to give it a 185% gain in 2025.

The price of copper in the US fell 19% after Trump said he would exclude the metal from massive import tariffs. What the hell? That is a huge move in the price of an economically central commodity.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed up 0.15%, but the S&P 500 slid by 0.12%, and the Nasdaq ended 0.15% higher. Today should be better.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

Reliability is a wonderful attribute. The best people are those that you can count on to be consistent and supportive through thick and thin.

The most reliable stock in Vestact portfolios is payments network operator Visa. They had second-quarter results out on Tuesday night, and they were excellent, as always.

People with Visa-branded credit and debit cards worldwide, used them 65.4 billion times during the quarter, representing a 10% increase from the same period last year.

Adjusted earnings beat estimates at $2.98 per share. Payments volume at constant currency rose 8%, and the all-important (higher margin) cross-border volumes rose 12%, or 16% in USD.

Growing top-line revenue at good margins results in superior financial performance and a rising share price. Visa's profits for the three months rose to $5.8 billion, an increase of 19% compared to the same period a year ago.

After a good year, with Visa stock up 33% over the past 12 months, the shares were flat on Wednesday, because the management team maintained its annual profit outlook despite all that good news. That's not a concern for us. Visa doesn't usually revise its outlook in fiscal Q3, but it usually outperforms in the fourth quarter.

Naturally, we are happy holders of this one. You can't own too many of them. Buy some more!

Byron's beats

We are currently in the middle of earnings season which Vestact always makes a big fuss about. Why, you may ask? Because earnings are the biggest driver of returns.

Take a look at this chart from Charlie Bilello. Since the year 2000 there has been a 98% correlation between the stock market price and earnings.

I don't think I need to say much more. It is all about the money, honey.

Michael's musings

There's a general rule in finance that says the more complicated the product, the more money the seller will make. In other words, complexity is good for the finance house and bad for the customer. In some cases, the customer has a very special set of needs, so they are willing to pay extra for a vehicle that meets those needs. However, in most cases, customers are buying these products simply because they sound clever.

At Vestact, our product is very simple and our fees are fully transparent. Some customers appreciate that, but a few feel that they need to see elaborate structuring to justify paying a fee.

You may have been pitched a product like this before: It protects on the downside, but only if the market doesn't fall further than 35%, and then you get most of the upside, but only if the market doesn't rally too hard. It comes with currency protection, and if the market does fall this year then it will roll you into a new product for another 12 months. Do you even know what you are buying?

There's a story doing the rounds this week about investors buying products that they didn't fully understand, and then getting upset when the outcomes were different from what they expected - UBS orders bankers to scale back sale of complex currency products. UBS ended up refunding some clients their money because it isn't good for business when you appear to be taking advantage of client ignorance.

Like most things in life, simple and transparent is usually better.

Signing off

Asian markets are mostly lower this morning, despite the US announcing trade deals with South Korea and India. Trump said that if India continues to buy Russian oil, there will be extra penalty tariffs coming their way. Apple execs must be bleak as they have moved iPhone production from China to India, for the US market.

In local news, Prosus has started selling down its $4.2 billion stake in Meituan, a Chinese food-delivery app. That's a non-core holding that was spun out of Tencent, so it makes sense to sell it and use the cash in other parts of the business. This is especially true now that Meituan plans to expand into Brazil, where Prosus already operates a food-delivery business.

Thanks to spectacular Q2 numbers after hours from Microsoft (up 8%) and Meta (up 11%), US futures are looking at a strong open later.

Tonight, Apple, Amazon and Stryker are reporting, hopefully they will follow the lead of the other tech titans from last night. The Rand is back at $/R18.00 to the dollar.

It's almost the weekend. Relax and enjoy the good news from global markets.