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Can Tesla self drive?

26 April , 08:25 am

Market scorecard

US markets took a bit of a breather yesterday. The release of the US core PCE price data showed a faster-than-expected increase of 3.7%. This, coupled with gross domestic product data falling short of all forecasts, has reignited concerns about the economy. Nvidia and Tesla still managed to close up 3.7% and 5%, respectively.

In company news, Alphabet rallied 11.4% after-hours, as it crushed sales estimates and revealed a dividend plan. Similarly, Microsoft gained 4.3% in late trade following earnings that exceeded forecasts, driven by strong corporate demand for its cloud and artificial intelligence services. We are happy holders of both these megacaps.

Here's the lowdown, the JSE All-share was down 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.46%, and the Nasdaq was 0.64% lower.

Our 10c worth

Bright's banter

Tesla announced its quarterly results on Tuesday, falling slightly short of expectations due to slowing demand in the electric vehicle market. However, shares surged by 11% as CEO Elon Musk revealed plans to increase production of more affordable models. A welcome move from the car company, whose share price has been one of the worst performers this year.

In the first quarter, Tesla manufactured 433 371 cars, made up of 412 000 Model 3 and Model Y units, a slight 2% decrease year-on-year. In terms of deliveries, the company shipped out 386 810 cars, with nearly 370 000 being Model 3 and Model Y units. This delivery volume represented a 9% decline year-over-year.

This led to Tesla reporting profits that halved to $1.1 billion on revenue of $21.30 billion, down 9% year-on-year. Tesla was able to report these numbers despite challenges like supply chain disruptions and production facility incidents, including Houthi attacks and environmental activism.

Additionally, Musk reiterated Tesla's commitment to autonomous vehicles, framing the company as an AI robotics firm. He emphasised that those who doubt Tesla's ability to achieve autonomy might want to reconsider their investment in the company. Spicy!

Tesla's upcoming autonomous ride-hailing service (or robotaxis) will compete with companies like Uber and Waymo. The EV-maker plans to have their own fleet of vehicles but the main business will be Tesla owners renting their cars out for the service, similar to Airbnb. I'm still processing that in my head.

These new models, expected to roll out in the second half of next year, will leverage aspects of both the next-generation platform and the current one. Musk hinted that further details about these vehicles would be unveiled in August.

These developments suggest a bold vision for Tesla's future, which is poised to transform both the automotive and transportation sectors. Investing in Tesla means aligning with innovation and progress in human endeavours.

One thing, from Paul

I was scrounging around for some words of advice to share, since it's Friday today, when this banger arrived from James Clear, the Atomic Habits guy. So, I'm just passing it along. Thank you.

"People can help you in many ways throughout life, but there are two things nobody can give you: curiosity and drive. They must be self-supplied.

If you are not interested and curious, all the information in the world can be at your fingertips, but it will be relatively useless. If you are not motivated and driven, whatever connections or opportunities are available to you will be rendered inert."

Byron's beats

Surveys from people who are currently using weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound which Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly manufacture are showing some interesting changes in behaviour. Not only are they eating less, but they are actually eating healthier foods and are motivated to exercise more. That sounds like a positive trend.

As an investor, we should keep a close eye on these shifts in consumer behaviour, especially if we believe that the changes are going to be at scale. At face value, stocks like McDonald's, PepsiCo, and Coca-Cola might be at risk. Whereas athleisure brands (we own Nike), gyms and healthy food stocks could be in for a tailwind. Even dating apps are expected to benefit.

This article from Finimize does a pretty cool analysis of the opportunities that could be at play. Take a read if you are interested.

Michael's musings

Big mergers are always exciting. They grab headlines with large numbers being thrown around and feature well-known brands. This week Anglo announced that they had received a non-binding offer from it's old foe, BHP, that values the firm at GBP 31 billion, a 14% premium to Anglo's Wednesday closing price. It is an all-share deal, that comes with many strings and is currently under review by Anglo's board of directors.

I don't follow the commodity companies too closely because Vestact finds them too cyclical to own. I was surprised to see the big market cap difference between Anglo and BHP, GBP31 billion vs GBP115 billion, respectively. BHP has had a 66-year head start, being founded in 1851, compared to Anglo's 1917. If BHP can complete this deal, it will produce around 10% of the world's copper.

Part of the deal would require Anglo to spin off its stakes in Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo Platinum to shareholders. Here is how the different share prices reacted to the news: Anglo up 19%, Kumba down 1.3%, Anglo Platinum down 9.5%, and BHP down 2.7%. The market seems to expect higher bids for Anglo, either with a revised offer from BHP or maybe even a bidding war that involves Rio Tinto and Glencore too. We don't have a horse in this race, so we'll just watch with interest from the sidelines.

Signing off

Asian markets are in the green across the board this morning as tech stocks advanced. Benchmarks rose in India, Japan, Hong Kong, mainland China, and South Korea. The Japanese Yen weakened to a 34-year low after the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged.

US equity futures are roaring higher thanks to those solid numbers from Google and Microsoft. The Rand is trading at around R19.03 to the buck.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator is due later today, which is different from PCE prices which were released yesterday. Either way, they will be watched closely by the interest rate brigade.

It is Friday already. Enjoy the weekend.