BHP Billiton soared yesterday as the Canadian authorities decided that a hands-off our Potash approach was one which they would project

Our major listed mining company, BHP Billiton soared yesterday as the Canadian authorities decided that a hands-off our Potash approach was one which they would project. Even though they (Investment Canada) were happy to say that they were open for business. Hmmm... BHP Billiton was amongst the top gainers yesterday, the stock up a whopping 6.15 percent to 26750. As you can imagine there were many a folk short BHP Billiton and long Potash Corp. in anticipation of the deal being rubber stamped by authorities (if not more importantly shareholders) and more importantly BHP Billiton coming back with more. So caught on both sides of the equation squeezed out of those shorts and forced to close the Potash longs, which did better than I thought that they would, the stock down only 2.4 percent to close at 141.97.



Two things, what is the chance of the very same committee that rejected the BHP Billiton overtures towards Potash Corp. to actually overturn their original decision after having heard any "additional representations" after submitting any "undertakings". On the part of BHP Billiton. So slim, so very slim, in fact most folks have suggested dead in the water really. Where does that idiom come from? Dead in the water? Also, the reason for the BHP Billiton share price running so hard was that the overhang of overpaying (by having to pay up to please the POT shareholders) has been removed. And now it is business as usual.



Sorry to rehash from yesterday, but what can BHP Billiton really do now? Is a share buyback something that they should realistically do, or would their smart investment banker partners have some really good ideas. Some people either dream this stuff up (as any good thinkers are paid for) or there is a chance of it happening, UBS had this to say yesterday, reported on Bloomberg ---> Anadarko, Woodside May Be BHP Targets After Potash Bid Blocked.




Paul said yesterday that it becomes tricky for them, because BHP Billiton have touted themselves as a TIER 1 producer. So they would have to continue to position themselves as having a real diversified quality portfolio of resource assets. We continue to accumulate them, even at these levels, in our book BHP Billiton is still best placed to take advantage of the commodities super-cycle that we believe that we are in. Although in the short term almost anything can happen and of course the risks are a slowing China, which is their major client. The developed world will come back too, and I think sooner than most people think.