Brait NAV calc

Brait, the investment holding company, released an NAV update for their third quarter to end December last week. New Look, the relatively new and huge investment for the company, represents 47 percent total assets. Their stake in Virgin Active represents 23 percent of the total assets of Brait. 13 percent is made up via Premier Foods, the local food business, whilst Icelandic Foods represents 7 percent of the total assets. Effectively this business is one quarter health and wellness, half fast fashion and the other quarter food processing and retailing. I guess whilst all businesses are 100 percent exposed to consumers, some are a little more sensitive to inflation and moves in interest rates.

Herewith the NAV analysis, and how the company has quickly shifted away from Steinhoff (and cash) to become New Look and Virgin Active. All in a rather big rush and catching Mr. Market off guard I think.



The share price has nearly doubled in 12 months, thanks to the share price movement in Steinhoff and then the depreciating currency. What matters from here is the movement in their two core newer investments, New Look and Virgin Active. I suspect that the outlook for both those businesses are really good. Chinese expansion continues at a breakneck speed for New Look, with the shift to a consumer related economy, I suspect the timing will be excellent. Equally, and I have stuck my neck out here several times, I think that the European recovery is going to take hold this year, this will be the year of Europe. The canary in the coal mine remains the "Brexit" scenario, the British economy being ejected by the will of the people in the United Kingdom. I think that whilst the socialists may think it s a good idea, common sense will prevail. Premier may be under pressure with input prices rising, whilst Icelandic foods is a slow mover. We continue to accumulate this company on weakness!