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South32 lists

BHP Billiton, the share price that is, will trade around 7 percent lower at the get go today, if the Aussie market is anything to go by. An email to a client that asked the question last week (what will it be worth) saw me answer this way: Good question. The simple answer is that nobody knows. South32 represents 4 percent of BHP Billiton EBITDA. Work on somewhere between 5-7 percent of your current BHP Billiton value. In a way I am glad that I was close (phew), in a way I was hoping that the market response might be a little more favourable. You know, the whole idea that these manganese and silver assets could be worth more to somebody else. Anyhow, you will recall that we advised most clients to take the cash, this is a good opportunity to exit the assets that management and shareholders view to be non-core to BHP. As simple as that. If management and shareholders approved the entire demerger and recommended it, then we want to hold the rump of the business and not the smaller assets. Understood?


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