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Don't be cute, execute

02 October , 08:14 am

Market scorecard

US markets opened lower on shutdown worries yesterday, but managed to end modestly higher. Pharmaceutical shares led the rebound on tariff relief, and gold continued its record-breaking run, touching $3 900 an ounce. The S&P 500 hit its 29th record of the year while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished just shy of its all-time high.

The weekly ADP report disappointed, showing a loss of 32 000 private-sector jobs versus expectations for gains. The shutdown of US government departments now threatens to delay key Fed data, including Friday's jobs report and October's CPI. They will probably just cut rates anyway, why not.

In company news, Pfizer jumped 6.8% after winning a three-year exemption from White House tariffs, tied to boosting local manufacturing and joining the so-called "TrumpRx" site. The news sparked hopes that peers could cut similar deals, sending Merck up 7.4% and Eli Lilly up 8.2%. Elsewhere, Reddit sank 11.9% on reports that ChatGPT has fully ransacked their library of content, and there's nothing more to scrape.

Here's the lowdown, the JSE All-share closed up 0.66%, the S&P 500 rose another 0.41%, and the Nasdaq was 0.30% higher. First class!

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

The two most important factors when selecting large-cap stocks for investment portfolios are revenue growth and profit margins. If those are healthy, shareholders can expect good gains over time.

For starters, note that we limit the search for new investments to large-caps, as we are not interested in start-ups, regional players, mid-caps, or anything small fry. Nothing unlisted, and nothing worth less than $100 billion. Thanks for coming.

Top-line revenue growth tells you where a company is in its lifecycle. Ideally, sales should be accelerating. One might have to ignore a few bad quarters, but the medium-term trend should be clear.

When quarterly results are published, we look to see which segments of the business are producing the goods, and whether more revenue is coming from new customers, or higher prices. We obviously prefer to see organic growth, not bolt-on sales from acquisitions.

We hold stocks for decades, so we really need sustained advances. We may glance at management's outlook statements for the year ahead, but we depend more on our own assumptions and long-term thinking. How big could the business be in a decade from now? We are not fortune tellers, so there is some wishful thinking here.

Next, we'd do some investigation of profit margins. Sales growth is one thing, but margins are a function of pricing power, cost discipline, and how well the model scales. We like to see price increases, in the face of strong demand.

Companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Visa, Apple and Netflix score really well by these criteria. That's why we own them.

Byron's beats

There are three main drivers of stock market returns. Those are dividend yield, earnings growth and market rating. The first two are well understood, but the last may require some explanation. Market rating is basically the valuation that investors are willing to pay for future earnings, and can be expressed by the stock's price-to-earnings ratio.

The team at Ritzholtz Wealth has put together a fascinating data set that shows how these three determinants have impacted returns over the decades. More recently, during the 2020s, we have seen dividend yields come down, earnings grow and ratings expand.

The expansion of price-to-earnings ratios can be explained by various factors, but I would say that one of the main reasons is the high-margin nature of software-driven tech stocks, which have been leading the market higher.

Michael's musings

I've been a keen follower of markets for around two decades. In that time, I don't think a quarter has gone by without some high-profile doom-and-gloom forecast from a market guru. The latest theory is that market all-time highs mean that a correction is imminent, even though the last 100 years of market data tell us that generally, it isn't the case.

At first, I found all the market negativity frustrating, but now I embrace it. I'm a long-term investor who is in accumulation mode. The more negativity that is around today, the better for me, because I can then buy shares at cheaper prices.

We often say this in our newsletter, but it's worth repeating: the best time to add to your portfolio is when you have money. Don't try to time the market, particularly based on the latest news headline. Don't be cute, execute.

Bright's banter

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is expanding at lightning speed. In the first half of 2025, it made about $4.3 billion in sales, which is more than it earned in all of 2024. In the same period, they spent around $6.7 billion on R&D.

Currently, the company is generating over $1 billion every month, which puts it on track to hit sales of around $13 billion for the year. It's also spending big, with around $8.5 billion expected in capex this year, a relatively small amount compared to the $115 billion it projects it will burn through from now to 2029.

OpenAI has a huge cash cushion of $17.5 billion and fresh funding on the way, so it isn't in danger of running out of money. The company is now valued at roughly $500 billion, almost double what it was at the start of the year.

The company is aiming to grow from a popular chatbot into a fully-fledged business, making hundreds of billions in revenue by the end of the decade.

Linkfest, lap it up

Going to the movies is losing its appeal. Covid sped up that trend too - Shrinking box office.

Most investors would be better off doing less. Instead of trading up a storm, here are some ideas on enjoying your time - 21 ways to live more each day.

Signing off

Asian markets are generally higher this morning. Australia is trading significantly up, Japan and South Korea are also showing strong gains. ASX-listed Dateline Resources surged 11% after announcing an aggressive drilling program at its Colosseum Project to boost gold and rare earth output. That mine is located in East San Bernardino County, California.

In local company news, banking giant Capitec delivered strong interim results, with earnings up 26% on solid net interest income and fee growth. Their client base has expanded to 25 million people.

US equity futures are modestly positive in early pre-market trade. The Rand is at R17.22 to the US Dollar.

In Cajun French they say "laissez les bons temps rouler," which means "let the good times roll."