Lilly's weight-loss pill success

Eli Lilly just took a big step forward in the weight-loss arms race with its new daily pill, orforglipron, showing promising results in a late-stage trial for Type 2 diabetes patients.

The drug helped patients drop nearly 8% of their body weight (about 7.3 kgs) over 40 weeks without a plateau, meaning even more weight loss is possible with longer use. That weight loss figure is on par with Wegovy for diabetic patients. Blood sugar levels improved too.

Eli Lilly shares jumped as much as 17% on Thursday. The bigger story is this: a needle-free, easy-to-make GLP-1 pill could give Lilly a serious edge in the booming obesity and diabetes drug market, currently dominated by injectables like Ozempic, Zepbound, and Wegovy.

Side effects were in the expected range and less prevalent than current injectables - mostly mild nausea, vomiting, and diarrhoea. If all goes to plan, Lilly hopes to file for obesity approval by the end of 2025 and for diabetes in 2026.

Eli Lilly is about three years ahead of the competition in this pill format, and we could see oral GLP-1s alone becoming a $50 billion piece of what could be a $150 billion pie by 2030. This pill could cement Eli Lilly's dominance in the most valuable corner of Big Pharma's future.