Research archive for NFLX

Another Vestact recommended stock in New York portfolios is streaming entertainment service Netflix. The company has a fascinating history. It was founded in 1997 as a DVD movie distributor and didn't start offering online streaming until 2007. It was listed on the stock exchange in 2002, when it had just 600 000 subscribers, all of whom were in the US. It passed the 100 million-subscriber mark in April 2017, and now has over 137 million subscribers. It only started expanding internationally in 2010, when it launched in Canada. Today it's available in over 200 countries.

Tonight we get numbers from Netflix which is always exciting. This article from Yahoo finance delves into a Credit Suisse report which has some interesting estimates for the quarter.

I recently read a Goldman Sachs report about Netflix which suggests that the market underestimates the adoption of mobile subscribers. And I tend to agree. Here at Vestact we are mostly glued to our screens in our comfy office but many people do a lot of travelling for work. Many people download their content at home, using wifi, and then watch it on the go. What better way to pass the time than to binge watch Netflix? It doesn't even have to be mindless fiction, Netflix has a considerable amount of educational content.

Netflix released it's second-quarter earnings after the US markets closed on Monday (July 16th). The shares took a pounding, down 14% in after-hours trade as the company missed on subscriber growth numbers for the first time in five consecutive quarters. The shares closed down 5.2% yesterday recovering most of its losses on the day. Netflix has now missed its forecast only three times in the last ten quarters.

As investors in Netflix, it has now become important to pay attention to the Emmys. I am sure many of you already pay attention to the awards, as it is quite fun to watch, but now it has investment significance.

I did some number crunching on Netflix yesterday to try and understand why the share price has flown so fast. I wanted to see the potential profits this company can make.

Last night, after the market closed, one of the high flying stocks of the previous 3-years reported their 1Q numbers. The Netflix share price is up 520% since the start of 2015! High flyers have some big expectations attached to the company, Netflix did not disappoint. This WSJ articles headline sums things up pretty well - Netflix Hasn't Found an Expectation It Can't Beat.

Since Netflix released their Q4 results on the 22nd of January the share is up nearly 30%. Wow. And that is off a share price that was up 70% last year. The market cap of the business now sits at $120bn, a similar size to Naspers.

On Monday we received great results from Netflix. What a story it has been so far, you could even make a series about it. . . Streaming revenues increased 33% year on year, operating income doubled, and they added a record 5.3 million members in the quarter, much higher than their own expectations of 4.4million adds.

Netflix recorded numbers post the market close last evening, they are always presented in an orderly fashion via a shareholder letter from co-founder and CEO Reed Hastings - Q117 Letter to shareholders. For the time being the main metrics to focus on for the company will be the number of subscribers that they can continue to add, coupled with the most important thing for the subscribers, namely, content. Revenue growth of nearly 35 percent year-on-year, on net additions (of subscribers) of around 5 million (3.53 in their international business). Total subscribers (paying members) nearly reached 100 million, with a roughly even split between the US and their "international" business. Subscriber numbers were actually short of company and the Street consensus.

Whoa, Netflix continues to crush expectations. On Wednesday after the market close they released their 4Q results & shareholder letter. The stock shot up 8% in after hour trading. At the close of trading yesterday it only ended up 4% after all was said and done. Compared to the same time last year, streaming revenue is up 41% to $2.35 billion for the quarter. The numbers people were more interested in was what the subscriber growth looked like and the growth didn't disappoint (see below).

Netflix reported numbers after hours, the company has certainly kept relevant with the times. They used to be a DVD mail order business. You remember mail? Oh, and you remember what a DVD was too? And I am even guessing that you remember what a Blu-Ray was too? Don't feel too bad if you still buy those things, you are certainly not alone. And you remember dial up internet, the thing that used to ping and twang and make that amazing "handshake" sound? Ha ha, those were the days my friends, when websites had very few images as the internet speeds sucked so bad you couldn't download anything except some text. And a few images here and there. Nowadays we want a pipe into our living room to serve us nothing but the best streaming entertainment. Personally I am a Netflix user, I enjoy the original documentaries. That stuff from Netflix is good, I have watched the "Chef's Table", season one and season three (the French version - not finished yet). World class, for any foodie it is a must watch, plenty fun. Dan Barber and Massimo Bottura were my favourites.

Another company that has morphed along the way, and is older than you think is a business called Netflix. You may already be a big fan, provided that you have the streaming capabilities here in South Africa. Like the providers of smartphones, you are only as good as your service provider. Netflix will be 20 years old next year at the end of August, the company is the same era as the Amazons of the world, listing at a less opportune time in 2002 after the tech bubble had popped already. It is hard to believe that Netflix has been listed longer than Google. With the advent of high speed broadband, the company was able to change from a simple mail and pickup of DVDs (remember those) to a streaming service. It is so big that the company accounts for one-quarter to one-third of all US internet traffic.

On Monday night we had numbers from Netflix whose content fills our living rooms on a regular basis. Here is a pdf of the Netflix 1Q 2016, Letter to shareholders.

Wow it's been a wild ride for Netflix of late. Since they peaked in July at $295 to where it is now at $95 it has been an absolute rollercoaster. The behaviour of US equities can be fascinating. They take no prisoners but when a company performs, shareholders are rewarded. Once a company hits the spotlight, the volatility becomes almost unmanageable and when the market loses confidence, the company has to really work hard to earn that confidence back.