Dependance on debt day

04 July , 08:57 am

Market scorecard

US stocks notched their third record close of the week. Traders started the day worrying about weak US jobs numbers but those fears abated when official data showed 147 000 were added in June, much higher than the 117 500 expected. The odds of an interest rate cut later this month plunged, and the chances of a September cut dropped to 68% from 94%.

In company news, TripAdvisor popped 17% on news that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a 10% stake in the online travel company. Elsewhere, Robinhood dropped 3.6% after not being included in the S&P 500, meaning large index-tracking funds won't be buyers. Finally, Krispy Kreme fell 3.5% after its CFO quit.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed up 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.83%, and the Nasdaq ended 1.02% higher. We are ecstatic.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

One of my favourite writers, Chris Arnade, pointed out that pleasant urban environments require respect for public spaces. Attractive cities like Oslo, Munich, New York or London have clean sidewalks and gorgeous parks. The city administrators and the public all do their part.

Here in Johannesburg, the opposite is true. Our roads, ranks, stations and green spaces are exposed to the worst possible behaviour.

I'm something of an expert on this topic, because I'm out and about the city in the early mornings, on foot, with my running group. See the picture below that was taken last week in Hillbrow. That's me just right of centre in the middle row, wearing a reflective vest.

In the inner city most traffic lights don't work, there is inconsistent waste removal, streetlighting is patchy, and there is insufficient crime prevention. The road surfaces are a mess. The taxi ranks are fun to run through, but absolute chaos.

Unemployment is a big problem in this city, but the ANC-controlled municipality is openly hostile towards informal traders. Licencing is required to operate, there are no lockable storage units for hawkers, and there are no ablution facilities.

I'm hoping for a big shift in municipal politics in the next local government elections in 2026. We should all be engaging with our outside environment, not hiding at home. That's my Friday advice.

Byron's beats

The Microsoft AI team is making waves in the medical field. Their Diagnostics Orchestra, called MAI-DxO, correctly diagnosed up to 85% of the New England Journal of Medicine cases, which is 4 times higher than experienced physicians. To be fair, in this comparison, the humans didn't have access to outside help like other colleagues or textbooks, which would be available in a real-life scenario.

AI cannot replace the personal relationship you have with your physician, which will remain very important. But the technology will certainly help your doctor make more accurate assessments.

Remember that healthcare access is still a huge issue for large portions of the global population, especially as medical costs have been increasing quickly. Innovation in the sector has actually made medical services more expensive in many cases - advanced drugs and procedures aren't cheap. AI should be able to help deal with both these challenges.

There are already over 50 million medical queries on Copilot and Bing a day, providing plenty of data for the tech to work with. Watch this space.

Michael's musings

Inflation measures how prices change for the average person. Given that South Africa has large wealth disparities, I don't think anyone actually fits the mould of an "average person".

Johann Biermann is a fellow investment professional and blogger, and he created the Braaibroodjie Index to give us something more tangible when thinking about price changes.

He just reported that "the price of a braaibroodjie dropped nearly 2% thanks to a 3.1% decline in the price of Cheddar and a 2.5% drop in onion prices. Seasoning however got a bit more expensive with both Salt and Pepper increasing by 2.1%."

The graph below shows that the cost of food is up by more than overall inflation over the past 8 years, and that simple braaibroodjies are up by even more.

Signing off

Asian markets are mostly lower this morning, with South Korea down 1.3%, over concerns about the trade standoff with the US. On Wednesday, Trump's 90-day tariff pause comes to an end. Will there be another extension or will we have a mess?

In local news, industrial investment company Hudaco reported poor numbers after the market closed. Revenue and operating profit both went backwards in real terms, with management blaming a weak local economy, as they have many times before.

Yesterday the House of Representatives passed a $3.4 trillion fiscal package by a vote of 218-214. The Big Beautiful Bill is on Trump's desk for signature.

US markets are closed today for the 4th of July public holiday. On this day in 1776 the US Congress proclaimed the Declaration of Independence and independence from Great Britain.

The Rand is trading at $/R17.50

Have a restful weekend.