Stocks bounced back strongly yesterday after their worst week since April, with the megacaps leading the recovery. This followed Joe Biden's announcement that ended his presidential run. Last week was all about the "Trump trade" but now the election outcome seems a coin toss again. We shall see. The "Magnificent Seven" rose by 2.7% with Tesla gaining 5.2% and Nvidia climbing 4.8%.
In company news, Verizon dropped 6.1% following the wireless carrier's report of weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue. Elsewhere, CrowdStrike fell another 13.5% due to ongoing issues stemming from a faulty software update. More on that below. Lastly, Ryanair nose-dived 15.4% after reporting economy-class profits and lowering its outlook for summer ticket prices.
At the end of the day, the JSE All-share closed up 0.71%, the S&P 500 rose 1.08%, and the Nasdaq bounced 1.58% higher.
Travelling internationally reminded me that there are a lot of people on this planet. Humans are everywhere, living as best they can, speaking strange languages, raising their children, and getting ahead.
According to the United Nation's biennial World Population Prospects report, we are at 8.2 billion people now and expect to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. This forecast has been cut by 6% from the one they made a decade ago, due to falling birth rates.
Here's a prediction from me, even though I'm not a demographer. I think that there will never be more than 9 billion of us, and the peak will come in 2050 not 2080. I suspect that the countries expected to contribute big numbers of babies this century are going to fall short. People (especially young women) are getting smarter, and more aware of their lifestyle options, thanks to smartphones with internet access. There'll be fewer people in years to come, but a much higher standard of living, on average.
Our dual focus on investments in technology and healthcare seems right. Those are two core priorities for a richer, older and more tech-savvy human population.
Now that was a classic case of commentators curse! After writing a very positive piece about what a great company CrowdStrike is, that very same morning, they became the face of the biggest IT failure in history. Ouch, terrible timing.
The good news is that CrowdStrike was not hacked. A cybersecurity company being hacked would be disastrous for their reputation. Instead, it was an internal glitch that had a direct impact on most corporate clients that run Microsoft operating system software. As you can guess, there are many such clients. It is estimated that 8.5 million Windows machines were impacted.
Founder and CEO George Kurtz (pictured below looking shattered) responded quickly, professionally and directly. He appeared on multiple news channels, doing countless interviews, explaining what had happened.
Our advice is to hold. They may lose a few clients to competitors and there could be some lawsuits due to lost revenues. The airlines for example are not happy. But we still believe this a great business with strong long-term prospects. Companies are made up of people and people make mistakes. We are not the type of shareholders to sell a stock after one glitch.
On the plus side, management's reaction has been well received, and now the whole world knows the CrowdStrike name. As they say, there is no such thing as bad publicity, although I am sure they would have preferred this not to have happened.
Having a holiday home sounds great, in theory. You have a place that you can visit whenever you feel like it and it comes pre-equipped with all the stuff required for a comfortable stay. No need to worry about check-in and check-out times, or needing to book months in advance. Financially though, owning a second property can be an unnecessary drain on your resources. Not to mention all the admin that comes with owning an additional house.
One of my favourite bloggers, Ben Carlson, makes the argument for why he doesn't regret buying a lake house - The best investment I ever made (the pros & cons of owning a vacation home). I think he is a bit biased because his purchase timing was perfect. Carlson managed to lock in a super low interest rate of 3% and bought just before there was a post-Covid rush to own property outside of the city.
I used to be completely against owning a holiday house. Instead of having a fixed monthly cost, I prefer to rather put that money away and have the flexibility to go wherever I like. My view has since softened slightly. If you buy a second property, it needs to be within a 2-hour drive of your primary residence, which will allow you to visit it at least once or twice a month. If you don't visit regularly, then the admin and financial burden isn't worth it.
Christian Dior has come under scrutiny after it was revealed that a supplier assembled its EUR2 600 handbags for just EUR53 per piece. A Milan court identified Dior and Giorgio Armani as brands whose products were made in sweatshop-like conditions in Italy.
Luxury brands, including Dior, often use independent workshops to meet demand, but some cost-saving measures have gone too far. Dior contracted work to a Chinese-run factory in Italy, with questionable working conditions. Addressing these issues may require significant investment in new facilities or increased payments to suppliers, potentially reducing profits.
LVMH, Dior's parent company, reported that production costs for its diverse product range accounted for 31% of sales in 2023. Estimates say that a EUR10 billion luxury fashion label like Dior might spend about 23% of sales on raw materials and labour. If that is the case, a EUR2 600 purse, should have production costs of around EUR598. The Italian investigation found a very different picture.
This report has sparked a PR crisis, with consumers questioning the value of their high-priced purchases, especially after recent price hikes like the mini Lady Dior bag rising from $3 500 in 2019 to $5 500 today. Other luxury brands are also under investigation, indicating a broader industry issue.
While cleaning up these supply chain problems will impact profits, maintaining a reputation for quality is crucial for luxury brands.
People are working beyond retirement age. Sometimes it's due to a lack of savings for retirement, for others they can't picture a life after work - How do you know it's time to retire?
Having a big bank balance allows people to buy interesting things. Here's how billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin spends his dough - Paintings, houses, and a dinosaur.
Asian markets are mixed this morning. Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan rose, while those in Hong Kong, India, mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan dropped. Tech and chip-related stocks are starting to reverse some of the losses we saw last week.
In local company news, Amplats reported an 18% drop in earnings and a 19% drop in revenues for the first half of the year, attributed to lower PGM prices, one-off restructuring costs, and inflation. These setbacks were partially offset by cost-reduction initiatives and higher sales volumes. The miner also announced plans to list in London in preparation for its separation from Anglo who currently owns 80% of Amplats.
US equity futures edged lower pre-market. The Rand is currently at around R18.24 to the greenback.
Today is an exciting day with earnings reports out from Alphabet, Tesla, Visa, Spotify, and LVMH.
Keep well.