I just arrived in Manhattan and I'm feeling a little jetlagged. I'm here for a week to spend some time with our US-based partners, where our client accounts are hosted.

So, instead of trying to write something original (as I do every other day of the week) I'm just going to share a good paragraph by Larry Swedroe. He's an investment professional based in Missouri who has written many investment books over the years.

"It is during the periods of underperformance that investor discipline is tested. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that most investors significantly underperform both the stock market and the very mutual funds in which they invest. The reason for the underperformance is that investors act like generals fighting the last war."

"Subject to recency bias (the tendency to overweight recent events/trends and ignore long-term evidence), they observe yesterday's winners and jump on the bandwagon - buying high - and they observe yesterday's losers and abandon ship - selling low. It is almost as if investors believe they can buy yesterday's returns, when they can only buy tomorrow's."

Back in 1959, consumer spending for the average American was split 55% on goods and 45% on services. That has changed drastically over the years, where today 31% of spending goes to goods and 69% goes to services.

Why has this trend changed and what does it mean? Generally, it means that life has been improving. Instead of consumers spending most of their income on groceries, microwaves, vacuum cleaners and cars, they are rather spending it on salons, restaurants, Netflix, WiFi, doctors and financial advisors.

This is because the average American has become significantly wealthier over the decades but also because many consumer goods have become cheaper thanks to globalisation and China. A service driven economy is the end goal and the US has managed to achieve that.

A client complained last week that we are too harsh on Trump. We are critical of many things he has done, but he has made it easy. For the record, at Vestact, we aren't fans of any politician. Biden didn't get too many mentions in the newsletter because 'Sleepy Joe' didn't do much that made the news.

The four of us in the office are all moderates, agreeing with positions taken by both the left and the right. If we had to tick a box, we would probably fall around centre-right in our political leanings. For example, we agree with globalisation and free trade, but don't agree with immigration policies that give asylum seekers more rights and benefits than citizens.

My biggest gripe with Trump is less about his policies but more about how he has implemented them. All the flip-flopping on trade taxes has created massive uncertainty. The one thing you want to avoid in global economics is uncertainty. When businesses are uncertain, they stop spending.

Even though China and the White House are in tariff talks, there is a huge amount of uncertainty around. The Port of Los Angeles expects 36% fewer cargo ships to arrive next week, compared to the same week last year. Companies don't want to send products from China on a ship, which takes 2-3 weeks to sail to LA, because in that time tariff numbers could be substantially different from the day the products were ordered.

Hermes reported a 7.2% rise in first-quarter revenue, reaching EUR4.13 billion, just shy of analyst expectations. While that's a marked slowdown from the 18% growth seen in the previous quarter, it's still solid in a luxury sector navigating economic headwinds and political risk.

What's notable is Hermes' resilience in the face of softening global demand. Growth was broad-based across regions, with momentum picking up in the US for March, helping offset weaker sales from China. Unlike peers who cater to aspirational buyers, who are quicker to tighten belts, Hermes continues to benefit from a loyal ultra-wealthy clientele.

This customer base, along with disciplined product scarcity, gives Hermes rare pricing power, allowing it to hold margins and weather threats like potential US tariffs. Thanks to sidestepping the sales stumble that hit LVMH, Hermes is now the most valuable luxury house globally.

Hermes is facing heat over reports that some of its luxury handbags may be made or assembled in China, a potential reputational dent for a brand that trades heavily on French craftsmanship and exclusivity.

The company has strongly rejected the rumour of production in China. The very idea of a "Made in China" label on a Birkin or Kelly bag risks undermining the brand's core narrative of artisanal heritage. Perception matters, especially to loyal customers and collectors.

Resale values could take a hit if the 'Made in China' label sticks. In Western markets, Chinese goods carry mass-market connotations. Even in China, wealthy consumers may bristle if they sense a shift from scarcity to scale. While this controversy won't derail the brand overnight, Hermes is trying to get ahead of the narrative to reassure customers and preserve the aura of luxury that lets it command those five-figure price tags.

There's a growing community focusing on longevity. They live optimised lives and they miss out on living - When I'm 125 years old.

The 4-minute mile was only achieved in 1954. Since then, fewer than 2 000 people have achieved the milestone - Nike and Faith Kipyegon are aiming for the first female 4-minute mile.

Asian markets were a mixed bag this morning as early optimism faded. Dragging sentiment down was fresh data showing that China's factory activity contracted at its sharpest pace since December 2023, a clear sign that the trade war with the US is starting to bite. In South Korea, Samsung Electronics dipped 0.3% after revealing its chip division took a 40% profit hit, thanks to US export curbs that clipped demand for its premium semiconductors.

In local company news, Prosus/Naspers has officially appointed Nico Marais as Group CFO, following a steady hand as interim CFO since December 2024. Elsewhere, WeBuyCars expects to swing from a headline loss to a headline profit for the six months to March. They have ambitions to hit 23 000 monthly unit sales by the 2028 financial year.

US equity futures are in the red pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.54 to the US Dollar.

Enjoy the last day of April. We will be back in your inbox on Friday morning.